The situation in Eastern Europe has been rather, well, infuriating to watch unfold. I imagine it has been unimaginably infuriating to be Ukrainian during all of this madness. I imagine this ongoing aggression has been a point of contention since the poisoning of Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 and the Orange Revolution following that. Putin’s paranoia of NATO has reached a very dangerous point. He does not want a nation so close to his borders allying itself with the west, therefore allowing western countries to set up bases so close to Russia. What the man is evidently failing to understand, however, is that who Ukraine chooses to ally itself with is not his call. It would be one thing if NATO invaded Ukraine, which fully supported Putin and Russia, in an attempt to take it over and gain a foothold on entering Russia. Putin’s feelings regarding the expansion of NATO would be quite justified in that regard. It just so happens that this is not the case at all. Not remotely.
NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe has not been a forced one. The nations surrounding Russia are one by one making the conscious choice to distance themselves from Russia. There is nothing morally justified that Putin can do to prevent these events from unfolding; especially not when his attempt at doing so involves military action and bloodshed. Whether he likes it or not, Ukraine wants to be a part of NATO. They’ve also shown great interest in joining the EU. This nation of free people is actively opposing Putin and his ways, and what is Putin’s response? Threaten invasion to stop the supposed tyranny of the west. Give me a break. His stance on Ukraine has to be one of the biggest temper tantrums I’ve seen in politics in a long while. And he is more than willing to kill people over this tantrum.
Things will go horribly wrong very quickly if Russia launches a full-scale invasion into Ukraine. Do I think he will do it? No. I see no benefit for Russia whatsoever in this heinous move. They will not be seen as the good guys in this event; not by a long shot. If they spill Ukrainian blood over the nation exercising its own freedom, no matter how much Putin tries to hijack the narrative, the villain in the story is apparent. I just hope I’m right and nothing happens.
Also, I can’t help but point out that things will not, in my humble opinion, go over as well as Putin seems to think in the event of an invasion. Russia certainly has the firepower and manpower to take Ukraine, but not without a great loss of their own troops in the process. That invasion will not be a clean sweep. Many Russians will die attempting to take it, and many, many more will die when the west inevitably gets involved. And for bloody what? Russia cannot win a war against NATO. It is a simply impossible task for them, even if you ran it through a thousand detailed simulations. The only chance Russia would have would be if they managed to convince China to go to war with them, which is highly unlikely. War with China has been another point of great anxiety, yes, but not in Europe. Jinping’s eyes are fixed on Taiwan, yet another nation that is being punished over the expression of their free will.
Okay, there might be one other way that Russia gets the upper hand over NATO; and that would be if the west takes the Isolationist route, where they allow Russia to take one bit of land at a time, just like Hitler did, because what happens in Eastern Europe is ‘Not their problem’. An unwise move.
Overall, I do not see things going well for Russia if they go through with this utter lunacy. They have so little to gain and so much to lose. I hope, for everyone’s sake, that somebody in the Kremlin talks some sense into that imbecile Putin.
We’ll see.